'Bunch of ways' to tackle prediction market: Flutter CEO Peter Jackson
Against the backdrop of strong first-quarter financial results, Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson elaborated on the company’s strategic thinking regarding the emerging U.S. prediction markets during the Q1 2025 earnings call last week. Jackson signalled a flexible, multi-pronged approach, stating, “There’s a bunch of different ways we can think about it,” as the global gaming giant leverages its international experience while navigating regulatory uncertainties.
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Strong Q1 performance sets the stage
Flutter on 7 May 2025 robust growth for the first quarter ended 31 March 2025. Key highlights include:
- Group revenue: Increased 8 percent year-over-year to $3.67 billion.
- Group Adjusted EBITDA: Rose 20 percent to $616 million.
- Group net income: Swung significantly to a profit of $335 million, compared to a loss of $177 million in Q1 2024.
US segment revenue: Grew 18 percent to $1.67 billion, driven by an 11 percent increase in Average Monthly Players (AMPs).
- US Adjusted EBITDA: Increased fivefold to $161 million from $26 million in Q1 2024, demonstrating strong operating leverage.
- FanDuel market leadership: Maintained its leading position with 43 percent GGR market share in online sports betting and 27 percent GGR market share in iGaming.
This strong financial performance, particularly the continued scaling and profitability of the U.S. business led by FanDuel, provides a solid foundation as Flutter contemplates new market opportunities like prediction markets.
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Prediction markets: Eyeing untapped states and “Priming the Pump”
During the call, Jackson reiterated that Flutter is “closely monitoring” the prediction market space. He identified a key opportunity in major states yet to legalise mobile sports betting, such as California, Texas, Georgia, and Minnesota. Prediction markets, he suggested, could act as a “sort of prime-the-pump type of opportunity” to engage customers before potential sports betting legalisation.
Jackson also noted that any regulatory momentum for sports betting spurred by prediction markets would be beneficial. “If there is any benefit we get from prediction markets encouraging faster rollout, we’ll take it, right?” he commented.
Leveraging Deep Exchange Expertise
Flutter intends to draw heavily on its experience with the Betfair Exchange. “We know this space well,” Jackson affirmed, citing the “very good insights” gained over many years from the European exchange platform. He confirmed that experienced Betfair Exchange personnel have been moved to the FanDuel team “to help us evaluate the opportunity“.
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Acknowledging current product limitations
Despite the potential, Jackson acknowledged that current prediction market products “lack the richness of a true sportsbook offering“. He specifically pointed to the difficulty in replicating the popular parlay bet format, crucial to U.S. sports betting engagement. “We can see how important the parlay mix is to a U.S. audience and, of course, you can’t access that in the same way with something like the exchange,” he explained. This suggests prediction markets may currently serve a different niche or require significant innovation.
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Navigating a “fluid” regulatory landscape
The regulatory environment for U.S. prediction markets remains “very fluid,” according to Jackson. Flutter is awaiting further clarity, particularly from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), following an upcoming roundtable on sports-related contracts.
Jackson deliberately kept Flutter’s specific regulatory plans under wraps. “We’re not going to take you through all the details of how we’re thinking about tackling the prediction markets… And when we’re ready to share that, we’ll tell people what we’re going to do,” he stated during the Q1 call. This indicates a cautious, flexible approach pending clearer regulatory guidance.
