The glitter-fueled chaos of Eurovision is almost upon us, and once again, bookies, superfans, and spreadsheet nerds are trying to predict who’ll take home the dramatic glass microphone in Basel this year. With rehearsals heating up and national pride on the line, the top contenders are starting to emerge like zirconian-studded phoenixes from the confetti.

Here are the top five favourites according to the bookies:

1. Sweden: saunas, sarcasm, and a serious shot at the win

Artist: KAJ

Song: Bara bada bastu

Implied chance: 35%

Odds: 1.95–2.36

Ah, Sweden. Eurovision’s golden child. This year, they’ve served us KAJ with Bara bada bastu, a title that translates to “Just bathing in the sauna,” because of course it does. Get ready for witty lyrics, a splash of synth, and more cheek than a sauna towel slip.

With slick production and a track record hotter than a Super Trouper spotlight, Sweden’s sitting pretty at the top of the odds.

2. Austria: heartbreak and high notes

Artist: JJ

Song: Wasted Love

Implied chance: 20%

Odds: 3.5–4.35

Austria’s entry, Wasted Love, is the soundtrack to your 2am existential crisis, complete with haunting vocals and heavy emotions. JJ has climbed the ranks thanks to a live performance that could have dragged a tear out of Simon Cowell’s eyeball.

Sitting second in the odds, Austria is being quietly tipped as the serious contender to snatch the crown from Sweden’s clutches. Grab tissues, emotional support snacks, and your AI therapist.

3. France: an ode to the mothership

Artist: Louane

Song: Maman

Implied chance: 8%

Odds: 8–15

France is back to doing what it does best: singing beautifully about heartbreak, love, and, this time, your mum. Louane delivers Maman with the kind of raw emotion that will make even the angstiest of teenagers want to text their parents.

The odds aren’t screaming “win,” but France’s love of emotional ballads, paired with Louane’s vocals, makes this a classy contender. Bonus points if they throw in a wind machine and dramatic spotlight.

4. Netherlands: DGAF energy with a catchy beat

Artist: Claude

Song: C’est La Vie

Implied chance: 6%

Odds: 11–17

Claude is bringing full Euroclub energy with C’est La Vie. This undeniable toe-tapper comes with a pop beat you can’t shake off. They’re the quintessential Eurovision dark horse: underestimated, upbeat, and just one camera close-up away from a surprise victory.

5. Israel: hope and high notes

Artist: Yuval Raphael

Song: New Day Will Rise

Implied chance: 5%

Odds: 11–19

Yuval Raphael is bringing inspiration by the bucketload with New Day Will Rise. It’s got power vocals, uplifting lyrics, and a universal message that might just sneak it past the frontrunners if the live performance hits the right notes.

What the Eurovision 2025 odds can’t guarantee

Bookies can crunch all the numbers they want, but this is Eurovision: the home of surprise wins, key changes, and the occasional lycra-clad man in a hamster wheel. Yes, Sweden’s in the lead now, but Austria’s heartbreak ballad could gut-punch its way to glory, France might win hearts with emotional gravitas, and the Netherlands or Israel could pull a sneaky upset.

So, whether you’re betting, voting, or just here for the drama and questionable outfits, there are some things that are guaranteed: glitter, chaos, and a level of bizarre that only Europe can deliver.

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