Italy stands firm against TotoPapa betting while global markets soar
Italy remains unmoved as the world flutters wagers on who will be the next leader of the Catholic Church. Despite the surge in papal betting abroad, the home of the Vatican refuses to play the game.
In Italy, strict ADM regulations prohibit betting on religious events. While bookmakers elsewhere are gleefully offering odds on cardinals as if the conclave were the Super Bowl, Italy has declared it a matter too sacred for speculation. As PressGiochi reported in their recent piece, , wagering on the next Pope is viewed as illegal and morally inappropriate on Italian soil.
A history of papal betting against the odds
Given Italy’s fierce defence of tradition today, it may seem surprising that gambling on the outcome of papal elections once had deep historical roots. In the fifteenth century’s fading glow, people whispered bets through cathedral shadows, defying excommunication as if faith itself were something to gamble.
Perhaps most astonishing is the tale from 1903, when the Italian government became involved. Officials offered betting odds on the death of Pope Leo XIII and had he passed away a week earlier; the government would have faced losses exceeding one million dollars.
In the end, it was Pope Benedict XV who, through his reforms in 1918, finally closed the door on such bizarre entanglements between church and chance.
Still, bookmakers, like old habits, die hard. Although Italy upholds its restrictions, modern global platforms have embraced the papal race with open arms.
A surge in global speculation
Today, peer-to-peer prediction markets such as Polymarket have seen staggering volumes traded on papal contracts, with over six million dollars wagered in just days. Major bookmakers, including William Hill, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Bet365 and Unibet, have listed odds on leading candidates, painting a vivid picture of international fascination.
Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s seasoned Secretary of State, stands as the favourite, with odds fluctuating between 9/4 and 5/2. Just a breath behind the favourite stands Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, praised for his pastoral touch and institutional reach. He has quietly positioned himself among the most likely successors.
Tagle’s odds range from 3/1 to 10/3, although a recent resurfacing of a video featuring him singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” has raised eyebrows among more conservative circles.
But maybe that is exactly what the church needs. Not another safe pair of hands. The conclave must decide. Is it clinging to its past until it decays or daring to be born again? An Asian pope, unafraid to dream beyond Europe’s cracked mirror, could shatter the silence. Dare to breathe anew, and the church may roar again. Imagine?
Other prominent names include Matteo Zuppi, Peter Turkson and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, each drawing interest at longer prices. Outsiders are being eyed cautiously, too, especially given how, in 2013, Jorge Bergoglio, who would become Pope Francis, was a 15/1 underdog.
Betting markets versus conclave realities
Yet, while the odds tell one story, history tells another. Betting favourites have occasionally matched the ultimate result, such as Giovanni Montini in 1963 or Joseph Ratzinger in 2005. In these instances, market movements during the conclave reflected real internal momentum among cardinals.
More often, though, the conclave remains a closed fortress, and betting odds fall short. In 2013, Cardinal Angelo Scola was the favourite, yet Bergoglio emerged as the surprise Pontiff. The conclave’s sacred secrecy, strategic alliances, and unpredictable currents have frequently stunned bookmakers and punters alike.
As detailed in Punts, prizes and sports betting surprises, the world of betting often sees its biggest upsets when human factors outpace the models. The papal election may be the purest example of that enduring unpredictability.
Gozo’s quiet contender in the spotlight
Amid the noise, quieter stories are finding their way into the betting conversation. As explored last week, with the world watching the Vatican, Gozo’s quiet bet steps forward, and Cardinal Mario Grech from the island of Gozo has drawn growing attention.
Though not among the bookmakers’ top favourites, many Vatican insiders see Grech as a continuity candidate. He is a modern canon lawyer with a pastoral heart, and his quiet influence and strategic role in synodal reforms may yet position him as a compromise figure if the frontrunners falter.
In a conclave shaped as much by whisper networks as public profiles, those further down the odds boards are never truly out of the running.
Faith over fortune
While Italy holds fast to its principles, banning all religious betting within its borders, the global appetite for papal odds shows little sign of waning. Instant speculation and digital platforms now draw even the most solemn moments into the swirl of public prediction.
Yet the conclave remains, at its heart, an exercise in sacred tradition. No bookmaker can chart the movement of the Holy Spirit. No odds can capture the quiet prayers whispered under Michelangelo’s frescoes.
As the smoke rises above the Sistine Chapel, it will not be driven by statistics or speculation. It will be driven by faith, sealed by secrecy, and witnessed by a world that, despite itself, still hopes for the unexpected.
