Kalshi bets big on granular 'Win Totals' market, expanding sports footprint amid regulatory crosshairs
Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated contract-based trading platform, is deepening its push into the sports world with a novel “win totals” market slated for launch on 15 May 2025.
This new offering allows users to trade on the precise number of regular-season victories a team will achieve, moving beyond the simple over/under bets typical of traditional sportsbooks. The launch comes as Kalshi experiences exponential growth in its existing sports markets while battling a complex web of legal and regulatory challenges from state authorities questioning whether its innovative products constitute unlicensed sports wagering.
The launch of a more refined sports product, such as “win totals,” can be interpreted as a display of Kalshi’s faith in its legal statements and its unique model, again distinguishing itself in the growing event contract space.
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Decoding Kalshi’s ‘Win Totals’
The new contract, formally titled “Will <team> have <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> wins in the <year> season?”, offers a more granular way to speculate on team performance. Like other Kalshi event contracts, these will operate on a binary yes/no outcome, with prices fluctuating between $0.01 and $0.99, mirroring the market’s perceived probability of an event occurring. Winning contracts will settle at $1.00.
This structure presents several key distinctions from traditional sportsbook offerings. The most notable is the granularity; users can predict if a team will win “between” a range of games, “exactly” a certain number, or “at least” or “below” a specific count, rather than just betting over or under a single line set by a sportsbook. This multiple-outcome system supports more advanced trading strategies. For example, a trader with the opinion that a team would perform consistently but not outstandingly could create a “range-bound” trade, forecasting wins would be “between” two figures. This serves a more financially sophisticated trader who wants to express a subtle opinion, similar to financial options market strategies.
In addition, these “win totals” contracts are also made tradable during the course of the season. This implies that investors can sell or purchase their positions prior to the end of the season, responding to events as they occur, such as specific player injuries, surprise team performances, or changes in market opinion. This is in sharp contrast to standard sports wagers, which become fixed upon being placed. The prices on Kalshi are also user-driven, determined by the collective buying and selling activity within the peer-to-peer market, rather than being set by a “house“.
To ensure fairness and transparency in determining outcomes, Kalshi will rely on a predefined list of reputable Source Agencies. For the “win totals” contract, these include established names such as ESPN, the Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, and Reuters, among others. Kalshi’s general market rules also stress documented criteria and verification sources to maintain integrity.
The firm’s use of multiple, varied, and high-profile source agencies might be interpreted as an attempt to increase the legitimacy of the results and pre-emptively address possible allegations of manipulation—a concern due to the level of attention with which Kalshi is viewed.
This strategy is echoed in the use of established data providers on traditional financial markets and validates the role of Kalshi as an open exchange.
Also read: Illinois regulator investigates Kalshi for illegal sports wagering
Kalshi’s expanding sports arena
Kalshi’s foray into sports has been met with considerable user interest. Since launching its initial sports-focused offerings in late January 2025, the platform has seen trading volumes swell. As of early May 2025, more than $861 million was exchanged in 2.9 million separate sports-related trades. Such quick uptake, given the newness of the platform and continuing regulatory uncertainties, speaks to a demand for something beyond the existing mechanisms for participating in and speculating on sports. This demand can be driven by those with experience in financial markets, individuals living in states without yet legal traditional sports betting, or users who appreciate the dynamic pricing and ability to close positions afforded by Kalshi.
The sports books on the platform are varied, going well beyond new “win totals.” Users can trade contracts on the outcomes of single games in major leagues like the NBA, MLB, and NHL, predict series winners in playoff matchups, and speculate on championship futures such as the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, and NBA Finals. Kalshi even offers markets on more niche event details, such as whether the Indy 500 will experience a rain delay. This scope of offerings implies a plan to cover a broad range of predictive interests and to constantly challenge the limits of what can be defined as an event which is tradable, thus stretching the perceived limit of prediction market potential.
The user interface is kept simple, with a simple “yes” or “no” choice on some outcome typically presented in a user-friendly interface on desktop and mobile. Prices of contracts dynamically respond to the market’s collective probability assessment. A core element of Kalshi’s model, and a key part of its legal defence, is its peer-to-peer nature: users trade contracts with each other, with Kalshi acting as the exchange, rather than betting against “the house” as in traditional sportsbooks.
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Kalshi’s multi-faceted prediction universe
While sports are a rapidly growing segment, they are part of a much larger ecosystem on Kalshi. The platform initially gained widespread attention for its political prediction markets, which saw hundreds of millions of dollars traded on events like the U.S. presidential election and control of Congress. Beyond politics and sports, Kalshi offers markets on a wide array of other real-world events, including economic indicators (such as inflation rates and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions), cultural events (like award show outcomes), climate trends, and developments in technology and science.
The huge trading volumes and user engagement seen in controversial areas like election betting likely provided Kalshi with the confidence and financial backing to expand into the equally sensitive sports domain. The legal arguments honed, and precedents set during its successful fight against the CFTC over election contracts have provided a foundational framework for defending its sports markets. By offering a wide range of markets beyond just sports or politics, Kalshi positions itself not merely as an alternative betting platform but as a novel financial utility. This approach aims to provide tools for hedging and price discovery related to various event-based uncertainties, which may strengthen its long-term regulatory arguments and broader market acceptance by highlighting uses beyond pure speculation.
Federal oversight and state resistance
Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), subject to regulation by the CFTC. This federal oversight is central to its argument that its event contracts are legitimate financial instruments rather than wagers. However, this status has not deterred state-level challenges. Gaming regulators in at least six states—Maryland, Illinois, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio—have issued cease-and-desist orders, contending that Kalshi’s sports markets constitute illegal gambling under their respective state laws.
Kalshi has responded assertively, filing federal lawsuits against states like Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland. Its core argument is that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, thereby pre-empting state attempts to regulate its federally authorised exchange activities. To date, Kalshi has achieved notable early victories, securing preliminary injunctions in New Jersey and Nevada that allow it to continue offering its sports event contracts while the legal proceedings continue.
The picture is complicated further by worries from the large sports leagues such as the NFL, NBA, and MLB, which have expressed concern that prediction markets are similar to sporting bets but could be without similar consumer protection and integrity measures, especially if they grow into proposition-style wagers. Traditional sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel are also monitoring Kalshi’s ascent closely. Some financial analysts and legal experts see clear parallels to sports betting, with gaming attorney Daniel Wallach, for example, arguing that Kalshi’s sports contracts lack specific congressional authorisation.
Topping off this complicated regulatory landscape is also the recent activity of the CFTC itself. The commission’s voluntary dismissal of its appeal in litigation over Kalshi’s political event contracts, combined with the presidential nomination of a Kalshi board member, Brian Quintenz, to possibly chair the CFTC, might well indicate a more favourable federal attitude toward such markets. This changed federal atmosphere could be one influence behind Kalshi’s bold legal approach and its continuing product development.
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What Kalshi’s ‘Win Totals’ signal
The launch of the “win totals” market, with its more intricate prediction options, can be seen as another step in Kalshi’s mission to offer sophisticated tools for individuals to trade on their forecasts. Kalshi had stated that it aims to democratise access to financial instruments and allow people to transform their opinions on a vast array of real-world events into tradable assets. This addition of more sophisticated contract forms may make way for still more financially engineered offerings in the sports prediction arena, potentially drawing in a different grade of trader looking to make use of sophisticated hedging instruments or more subtle means of articulating market opinions.
