Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has experienced a sharp 44 percent week-on-week drop in average daily revenue (ADR) following the May’s Golden Week holiday. This comes after the first 11 days of May, where Macau registered GGR of MOP8.55 billion ($1.06 billion), according to a recent investment note by HSBC, as quoted by media.
Fall in ADR despite uptick in VIP win rates
It is significant because, historically, the second week of May usually sees a 25-35 percent decline in run rate compared to the first week. This makes this year’s 44 percent decline more pronounced. Meanwhile, the six days after Golden Week saw the ADR sink to MOP575 million ($71.8 million) per day — a 1 percent year-on-year dip, despite an uptick in VIP win rates. The VIP win rates edged up slightly to 3.5-3.7 percent, compared to 3.3-3.5 percent the week before. The HSBC team noted that “the sequential slowdown was sharper than historical seasonality, partly because demand was front-loaded.”
Breaking down the segments, mass market ADR rose 22-24 percent month-on-month, compared to 60-65 percent surge seen during the Golden Week. VIP volume, too, moderated, increasing 21-24 percent month-on-month, down from 55-58 percent the previous week. Despite the stark week-on-week drop, HSBC noted that the month-to-date run rate in May remains 24 percent higher than April’s level. This is more than double the typical 10 percent average increase seen during this time of year.
Projected 0-5% GGR growth in May: HSBC
HSBC has forecasted 0-5 percent year-on-year growth in GGR for May, noting “Recent measures announced by China and the US ease tariff tensions and may help improve consumer sentiment to some extent, in our view.” It is worth noting that Macau welcomed over 850,000 visitors over the five-day Labour Day Golden Week from May 1st to May 5th— averaging more than 170,000 arrivals each day. This is significant as the arrivals have surpassed the projections made by the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO) of 700,000 visitors.
According to JP Morgan, the first five days of May saw MOP5.1 billion in GGR, averaging MOP1.02 billion per day. That marks 12 percent year-on-year growth — a strong showing given the challenging base of comparison. Last month, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a 1.7 percent rise in total gaming revenue for April 2025. For the month, GGR totaled MOP18.86 billion. While it was up from the corresponding period, it marked a decline of 4.1 percent sequentially.
As per analysts, the figure was pumped by the Easter holiday period from 18-21 April. During the holiday period, Macau welcomed 520,065 visitors. Cumulatively, GGR for the four months of this year totaled MOP76.51 billion, up 0.8 per cent year-on-year. However, the figure is 23.3 per cent lower than the same period of 2019.
