According to the latest survey from Morgan Stanley, as reported by media, hotel prices in Macau are expected to be softer this coming May Day holiday than both the Chinese New Year in 2025 and last year’s May holiday.
Macau’s average daily room rate (ADR) during the Chinese New Year of 2025 and 2 percent below rates from the 2024 May Golden Week. The Labor Day holiday, running from 1 May to 5 May, is one of China’s biggest travel sprees. It is expected to bring massive boost to hospitality and tourism, significantly lifting Macau’s visitor numbers, despite the lower ADR rates. In terms of hotel occupancy, it is a mixed scenario, with a 5-percentage point decrease compared to Chinese New Year 2025, but a 4-percentage point increase versus May Golden Week 2024.
May Golden Week will be similar to Chinese New Year
Morgan Stanley has anticipated that the upcoming May Golden Week will either be similar to, or potentially weaker than, the February Chinese New Year period this year. The market already anticipates a more than 5 percent year-over-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) drop for the first quarter of 2025. The investment banking company said a weak second quarter driven by disappointing May holiday performance could lead to further downward revisions of 2025 earnings forecasts.
Tourism authorities expected an influx similar to the Chinese New Year. But softer hotel data suggests a mildly underwhelming May Day in terms of spend per visitor. Andy Wu, president of the Macau Tourism Industry Association, believes as long as visitor flows remain strong, the local economy can still thrive—even if travelers are spending a bit less.
Seaport slashes 2025 forecast
Recently, brokerage Seaport Research Partners slashed Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth forecast for 2025 by more than half. The brokerage now expects 3 percent expansion, down from a previous estimate of 6.5 percent. This comes after a “weaker than expected start to the year,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Tuesday memo. For the year 2026 and 2027, the brokerage has projected growth of 7 percent, with “GGR recovering to 92 percent of 2019 by 2027,” he added.
The city was expected to witness occupancy rate between 90-95 percent during this year’s Lunar New Year holidays. The city witnessed an influx of visitors from 28 January to 4 February, with Wong Suk Yan, the president of the Macau Hotel Association stating that bookings were going strong ahead of the CNY.
