Some people wonder what the future will look like. Others bet on it. And a few actually cash in. That is what happened to at least two “pope bettors” who correctly predicted that Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost would become the new leader of the Catholic Church—and made more than $50,000 doing so.
Betting on white smoke
The papal race, followed by millions of faithful and curious observers around the world, dominated news headlines in recent weeks. It also attracted a staggering $40.4 million in wagers across the Kalshi and Polymarket betting platforms—two sites that have recently gained traction with their “bet on anything” approach, including major political elections over the past year.
A long shot pays off
The new pope, elected after a relatively brief conclave, is a 69-year-old Chicago-born American. He was not considered a favourite on betting sites—far from it. With less than 2% market-implied odds of being chosen by the Cardinals, he was seen as a long shot. According to , on Thursday, 7 May, as the conclave was taking place, a $170 bet on Prevost would have paid out around $10,000.
Big winners emerge
Each platform confirmed that at least one of their users won over $50,000. On Polymarket, a bettor going by the name “JustPunched” received $63,650.65 from a $1,059.52 bet. Meanwhile, a bettor on Kalshi earned $52,641 from a $526 wager. On Polymarket, six other users made at least $20,000 from their bets on Prevost.
The favourites who weren’t
On both platforms, the favourite had been Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
On Fantapapa—an online fantasy-style game that lets people predict the next pope not for money but for “eternal glory”, as the creator stated—Prevost was also not among the top picks. Based on a fantasy football model popular with Italians (who were prohibited from betting money on papal elections), the top candidates were Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines.
As the conclave was coming to a decision, almost no one—except a lucky few—predicted Prevost would be chosen. In fact, when white smoke billowed from the Vatican’s most famous chimney on Thursday, signalling the conclave’s decision, bettors rushed to place last-minute bets. The odds for the Italian favourite, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, surged, widening the gap between him and the second favourite, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, in those final moments.
