On the afternoon of 8 May 2025, the Catholic world and millions of curious people around the globe witnessed a historic moment: American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was announced as the new Pope, adopting the name Leo XIV. Under the watchful eyes of the crowd gathered in St Peter’s Square, the traditional white smoke marked the end of the Conclave and the beginning of a new chapter for the Catholic Church. His election surprised both the faithful and analysts and betting houses worldwide, as Prevost was not among the favourites. 

The 2025 Conclave moved millions of dollars on betting sites spread across several countries. 

In this article, we will detail what the odds were, which houses offered bets, who the favourites were, how the result surprised the market, and what the financial impact of this event was. 

Betting house	Odd for Robert Prevost	Comment
William Hill (UK)	20/1 (~5%)	Best odds among traditional houses
Sports Interaction (Canada)	+2000 (~4,7%)	Very high, ideal for risky bettors
Kalshi (USA)	2% (equivalent to ~50/1)	Less transparent, but very high
Polymarket (blockchain)	~1.5–2% at peak	It fluctuated, but allowed flexible betting

In other words, William Hill and Sports Interaction were the best options for those seeking high profits with Prevost, while Kalshi and Polymarket were interesting for more “geeky” punters accustomed to volatile markets. 

Betting houses and odds for the new Pope 

Several international platforms offered bets on the next pope, including traditional sites and blockchain-based prediction markets. 

• Kalshi (USA) 

Pietro Parolin: 30% chance 

Luis Antonio Tagle: 26% 

Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 10% 

Matteo Zuppi: 8% 

Peter Turkson: 6% 

Robert Prevost: 2% 

• William Hill (United Kingdom) 

Pietro Parolin: 12/5 (approximately 29% chance) 

Luis Antonio Tagle: 11/4 (27%) 

Matteo Zuppi: 4/1 (20%) 

Peter Turkson: 5/1 (17%) 

Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 6/1 (14%) 

• Sports Interaction (Canada) 

Pietro Parolin: +250 (implied probability of 28.6%) 

Luis Antonio Tagle: +325 (23.5%) 

Pierbattista Pizzaballa: +650 (13.3%) 

Matteo Zuppi: +700 (12.5%) 

• Polymarket (International) 

A blockchain-based platform that moved more than US$18 million in bets related to the 2025 Conclave. The bets included various modalities, including who would be elected, the continent of origin, and the papal name chosen. 

Who were the favourites in the odds? 

Despite Prevost’s victory, the favourites in the odds were others: 

Name	William Hill	Kalshi	Sports Interaction
Pietro Parolin	12/5 (~29%)	30%	+250 (28,6%)
Luis Antonio Tagle	11/4 (~27%)	26%	+325 (23,5%)
Matteo Zuppi	4/1 (~20%)	8%	+700 (12,5%)
Peter Turkson	5/1 (~17%)	6%	+800 (11%)
Pierbattista Pizzaballa	6/1 (~14%)	10%	+650 (13,3%)
Robert Prevost	20/1 (~5%)	2%	+2000 (4,7%)

Pietro Parolin        ██████████████████████ 29%  

Luis Antonio Tagle    ████████████████████ 27%  

Matteo Zuppi         ████████████ 20%  

Peter Turkson        ████████ 17%  

Pierbattista Pizzaballa ██████ 14%  

Robert Prevost       █ 2-5% 

Note: these numbers were approximate averages between William Hill, Kalshi, and Sports Interaction — the market fluctuated very close to this. 

This shows that Prevost was not on the radar of most punters and experts — his victory represented a huge gain for those who bet on him. 

Analysis and comparisons 

• Pietro Parolin: Vatican Secretary of State, widely considered the favourite, leading the odds in most betting houses. 

• Luis Antonio Tagle: Archbishop of the Philippines, seen as a strong candidate, representing a possible geographic shift in Church leadership. 

• Matteo Zuppi: Archbishop of Bologna, known for his pastoral approach and focus on social justice, was considered a consensus candidate. 

• Peter Turkson: A Cardinal from Ghana, represented the possibility of an African pope, which would have been historic for the Church. 

Despite the predictions, the Conclave surprised by electing as the new pope, adopting the name Pope Leo XIV. Prevost was not among the top favourites in the betting houses, and now we can see the unpredictability of the papal election process. 

Bets on the papal name 

In addition to betting on who would be elected, many also wagered on the name the new pope would choose: 

• John: +350 

• Francis: +500 

• John Paul: +600 

• Benedict: +800 

• Leo: +1000 

The choice of “Leo XIV” was considered bold and paid handsomely for those who bet on it. Historically, the last Pope Leo was Leo XIII (1878–1903), famous for his social encyclicals. 

Financial impact 

The betting market around the 2025 Conclave attracted a lot of attention: 

• Polymarket: More than US$18 million moved. 

• Kalshi: About US$6.7 million in bets. 

• William Hill + Betfair: estimated over US$15 million combined. 

Although betting houses offer an interesting view of public expectations, the final result reinforces that, in the Vatican, decisions are made according to criteria that often escape external analysis. 

Regulation and curiosities 

In many European countries (such as Italy and Spain), betting on the pope is legalised and supervised. 

In the USA, regulated platforms such as Kalshi were able to operate due to specific loopholes. 

Blockchain-based sites, such as Polymarket, escape national regulations and attract punters from restricted markets. 

It is worth remembering that the Vatican condemns betting involving ecclesiastical decisions, considering them “immoral and scandalous”, although it does not directly interfere with betting sites. 

This article was first published in Portuguese on 8 May 2025.

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