Seaport slashes Macau 2025 GGR forecast to 3% amid slow start
Brokerage Seaport Research Partners has slashed their Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth forecast for 2025 by more than half, as reported by media. The brokerage now expects 3 percent expansion, down from a previous estimate of 6.5 percent. This comes after a “weaker than expected start to the year,” wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Tuesday memo.
Projected 7% growth for 2026 and 2027
For the year 2026 and 2027, the brokerage has projected growth of 7 percent, with “GGR recovering to 92 percent of 2019 by 2027,” he added. “We are forecasting a strengthening to the market in late summer and into the back half of this year and do not expect the trade war to have a significant negative impact on Macau, at this time,” said the analyst. Umansky said long-term expansion for Macau gaming was “still structural… driven by a combination of increasing visitation and spend, including the benefits accruing from implementation of smart digital tables and increasing spend in baccarat side bets”.
According to the brokerage, the benefits from ‘smart’ digital tables “could be stronger than we expect and could lead to upward revision on our forecasts.” Additionally, they noted that baccarat side-betting was increasing in the Macau market. “The casino advantage in side bets is materially higher than traditional baccarat play, and while increasing side bets may reduce overall game time – as players lose money faster –, the overall GGR per player would increase,” said Umansky.
Weak China economy could negatively impact forecast
Seaport cautioned that “material weakening” for China’s currency and weakening China economy in 2025 would negatively impact its forecast. The institution said first-quarter results “will be disappointing as Macau growth stagnated, but individual company results should be largely as expected”. Umansky said, “Investors are likely to be more focused on the coming quarter and rest of the year, especially with heightened concern around any potential slowdown in Asia due to the Trump [administration] tariff regime and a potential U.S. recession.”
Gaming revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was nearly MOP57.66 billion, up 0.6 percent on the same period in 2024. For March 2025, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported a minimal rise in total gaming revenue. For the month, total gross gaming revenue (GGR) totaled MOP19.66 billion, marking a modest 0.8 percent increase compared to March 2024. This month’s gaming revenue marks a slight decrease of 0.4 percent from February’s figure. Whereas in February, total gaming gross revenue (GGR) was up 6.8 percent year-on-year to reach MOP19.74 billion ($2.46 billion).
